League Two Relegation: The RITB Prediction

With Leyton Orient and Newport County sitting (un)comfortably in the relegation zone, 9 points and 5 points from safety respectively, is the League Two relegation fight already a foregone conclusion?

Leyton Orient

Things are looking particularly bleak for The O’s. With 6 games to go, they are rock bottom, and looking to exit the football leagues for the first time in their history. Sky Bet place them at 1/100 to go down.

Orient’s remaining fixtures are Cambridge, Luton, Hartlepool, Crewe, Colchester and Blackpool.

We could maybe see the London Club gaining, on average, a point a game. But, even with this possibly generous prediction, the 6 points wouldn’t be enough to lift them out of the relegation places.

Newport County

5 points separate the Welsh team from Hartlepool, and safety. Is this still too big a margin to catch up on with so few games left?

The Exiles still have Exeter, Yeovil, Plymouth, Stanley, and Carlisle to play again in the League. Could these be the last teams they play as a football league team?

We estimate that Newport could gain 7 points in the remaining games of the season with maybe 2 wins and a draw. Losing the other 3.

This could take County up to 21st and out of the 2 danger spots. But this isn’t taking into account the teams above them and their performances for the rest of the season…

Hartlepool

Without a win since mid March, should Pools start to worry about their football league status?

The Coastal Club are yet to play Morecambe, Carlisle, Leyton Orient, Barnet, Cheltenham, and league leaders Doncaster for the reverse fixtures this season.

Based on the above predictions, Hartlepool would only need 2 points to keep them safe, but is it possible?

It wouldn’t be unacceptable to make the prediction that Hartlepool will not win any of their remaining games. However, that isn’t to say that they’ll lose them all as well, and draws may just keep them up here.

We think they’ll pick up four draws and two losses. This keeps them up and just leaves Cheltenham as contenders for the drop.

Cheltenham Town

The Robins sit 21st, 1 point above Hartlepool and only 6 points above Newport County.

They have Wycombe, Crawley, Grimsby, Blackpool, Hartlepool, and Portsmouth to play.

Based on the above predictions, they’ll need to walk about with only 1 point to avoid the drop. Surely they can get this 1 point from 6 games?

Sky Bet have them at 11/1 to go down to the National League; could they be an outside choice for the drop? We don’t think so. We think that they’ll get 5 points from their last games, with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses.

This is how we think the bottom end of the bottom division will end:

table
So, League Two relegation a foregone conclusion? …Pretty much.

Christopher Bell
@IamChrisBell_
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